"Improbable" is an understatement.
There are 2256 possible keys. In the entire universe, there are estimated to be "only" 2100 atoms.
So the odds of someone else ending up with the exact same address/key as you is far, far less than the same atom, out of the entire universe, being randomly picked twice.
If you are worried about an address collision, here are things that should be more worrisome:
- Gamma ray burst wiping out all life on earth.
- Sun unexpectedly going Supernova
- Rogue Blackhole swallowing the solar system
- An asteroid hitting the earth at the same time as nuclear war breaks out.
On the list of things to worry about, an address collision just does not show up.
You say that "millions of people use Bitcoin and Bitcoin Wallets that use their own addresses use several addresses per day".
100 Million of people
100 addresses per day
365 days / year
* 200 years
-------------
Less than 1 Billion addresses used in the foreseeable future.
1 billion is about 230.
Which means that in 200 years, the chance of a collision is somewhere around 1 in 2256-30 or, 1 in 2226, which is still way more than atoms in the universe.
You're easily safe for at least 200 years.
11"that is improbable so therefore who cares": This is the entire point! Cryptography never makes anything truly impossible, but it can make it so improbable that you no longer worry about it happening. You have to understand and accept this before you can go on to understand anything else. – Nate Eldredge – 2018-01-12T21:24:45.613
2
My first Google result for "bitcoin address duplication" is https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/23268/what-if-duplicate-wallet-addresses-are-created which links to two additional dupes.
– dave_thompson_085 – 2018-01-12T23:40:20.5801The point of ignoring probabilities here makes literally no sense. You could just as sensibly ask about physical money you held simply flying away spontaneously due to random atomic vibrations and quantum physics. Yes, it could happen, no, it wont. – Vality – 2018-01-12T23:43:01.207
I could also spontaneously combust. Statistically SOMETHING could trigger it (I agree, super unlikely... but still). I don't carry a fire extinguisher with me just in case (and I assume you don't)... it's all about risk management and understanding what "1 in a trillion" (or whatever) really means. I am aware that in the world of bitcoin, it's FAR LESS than 1/trillion btw... – Patrice – 2018-01-13T02:14:08.937
I think that "having a probability greater than 0" is a poor definition of "possible". After all, the probability that I will grow wings and become an airplane tomorrow is greater than 0, but that isn't the sort of thing you'd call possible, is it? So, don't be so sure that it's possible for someone else to end up with the same private key that you ended up with. – Tanner Swett – 2018-01-13T05:05:44.473
3try to focus on the question, not the rant. the current ‘question’ is 90% rant. – Aganju – 2018-01-13T12:13:20.177
@Raven: try to edit your question into open–ended wording, and you might make it easier for the community to find a proper answer. Maybe the question should be „how possible is it to duplicate an address randomly“. There are roughly 20 posts on this forum here and in bitcointalk. They explain the math, and people would be more than happy to provide corresponding links. With you wording this is nearly impossible.... – pebwindkraft – 2018-01-13T22:31:15.863