Statistically how many unconfirmed transactions get rejected?

0

I need to analyse unconfirmed transactions and I'm interested in knowing what is the probability for a given unconfirmed transactions to be confirmed.

Depending on the model, I see two solutions:

  • checking for a relatively long period of time how many transactions had been submitted and checking how many had been confirmed.
  • searching pattern behavior in the structure of a transaction that will lead to a rejection.

user61488

Posted 2017-10-10T09:32:25.700

Reputation: 1

Ask me to flood the network with transactions which will never confirm and you will get ANY digits in your statistics :) – amaclin – 2017-10-10T16:04:24.673

That's exactly my point, flooding has a very specific behavior pattern that can be detected often. – user61488 – 2017-10-11T08:47:51.970

If you are asking this question this means that you will not be able to detect my flood transactions from regular ones :) ok, we can continue the conversation (if you are interested in experiment) via email (in my profile) – amaclin – 2017-10-11T09:16:07.063

Answers

1

For a transaction to be included in a block, the probability is related to the fee that transaction pays to the miner (higher fee = more likely) and varies over time based on demand of block space (more congested = higher fee needed). It's also unpredictable because miners can choose whatever transactions they want to, doesn't always have to be the x highest fees.

Here's some stats on current fee vs confirmation time estimations: https://bitcoinfees.21.co

MeshCollider

Posted 2017-10-10T09:32:25.700

Reputation: 8 735

Thanks for your answer. My question wasn't clear enough I meant statistically how many unconfirmed transactions are rejected? Ive updated my answer. – user61488 – 2017-10-10T15:59:19.350

Asked: 2017-10-10T09:32:25.700

Viewed: 164 times

Active: 2017-10-10T16:00:55.033