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For the little bit I understood so far about the mining process, it seems to me that "finding" a block is very very very difficult for a CPU/GPU.
However, since it is done by brute force, it seems to me that there is a very small chance (has anyone calculated how much?) of a single cpu miner to find a block very fast in a few first tries, hence hitting the jackpot of 25 BTC.
Is this theory correct?
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it is now impossible for normal CPU/GPU to mine bitcoin, you need to get some ASICS or Gpus (e.g Rx480) and mine in a pool. of course you should buy devices with high Hashr power to increase your chances to get rewarded. Here is a simulator to check the potential profit you could make by determining your hash power : https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc
some details about the mining pool and the network hashrate :
But theoretically can't my miner hit a block instantly by accident in just a few tries and get 25 BTC? – PedroD – 2017-06-07T19:16:58.070
3Yes, it could. But you're much more likely to win a lottery than the chance that that ever happens. Also, it's 12.5 BTC per block since the last halving. – Pieter Wuille – 2017-06-07T19:22:05.143
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Yes, there is a chance of mining a block with a CPU. It's very small. The calculation is pretty simple and you can see an example here.
– Nate Eldredge – 2017-06-07T19:19:43.2703The "jackpot" is currently 12.5 BTC. And remember that you pay for electricity (generally around $0.10 per KwH). The cost of electricity to run your CPU/GPU will be much greater than your chance of making money. I've never said this before, but you are literally better off playing the lottery than GPU mining. – abelenky – 2017-06-07T19:37:21.767
@abelenky: Indeed, you are several thousand times better off playing the lottery. With a lottery ticket you can expect to get maybe 50% of your stake back on average. For CPU mining it's around 0.01%, if I did my calculation right. – Nate Eldredge – 2017-06-07T21:18:50.223