Probability that a block will be confirmed in x minutes

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I know that a block usually takes 10 minutes on average to get confirmed. But what is the probability that this will happen?

I mean is there any formula that we can use to calculate the probability that a block will be confirmed in the bitcoin network within x minutes? (assuming that the resources are fixed in the whole network)

Mije

Posted 2017-04-05T05:21:02.030

Reputation: 21

Answers

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The time T until a block is mined follows an exponential distribution. Assuming the difficulty has properly calibrated to the network hash rate, the rate parameter for T will be λ = 1/10 per minute. So the probability that the block is mined within t minutes is P(T <= t) = 1 - exp(-t/10).

Nate Eldredge

Posted 2017-04-05T05:21:02.030

Reputation: 21 420

That reminds me, I wanted to ask you what you thought about this related question: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/q/43440/5406

– Murch – 2017-04-05T07:58:34.967

Asked: 2017-04-05T05:21:02.030

Viewed: 688 times

Active: 2017-04-05T07:59:33.793