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I can't seem to wrap my head around this. Let's say we have these fake trades between two currencies
C1 C2 Rate dPIP Trade Value C1 Value C2
Day 1 1 0 10 0 buy 1 10
Day 2 0 10 10 0 sell 1 10
Day 3 10 0 1 -9 buy 10 10
Day 4 0 1000 100 99 sell 10 1000
Day 5 5 0 200 100 buy 5 1000
Day 2 you decide to short and overnight it crashes to 1 on Day 3. So you buy. Your holdings for Currency 1 (C1) go up 10x. But the value of your holdings doesn't change. Likewise you decide to short on Day 4 after seeing a 100x jump. On Day 5 you get cold feet and decide you sold too soon and buy in again at 2x at a loss.
How would you compute the running profits and losses (and which currency should be referenced)? For Example on Day 3 you made 9 of C1. Day 4: 990 of C2, Day 5: you lost 5 of C1. What is the right way to track the P&L because they are relative to each other.
And what is the overall yield? In the end of it all you went from C1=1 to C1=5 or in terms of C2...C2=10 to C2=1000.
EDIT: I've looked that this some more. If I look the change in C2 values during sales and the change in C1 values during buys I think I get the trade-trade yield. Does this look correct? Could then be summed to show the accumulative yield?
Example C1 yield (2nd buy) Yield=((10-1)/1)*100 = 900%
C1 C2 Rate dPIP Trade Value C1 Value C2 Yield %
Day 1 1 0 10 0 buy 1 10
Day 2 0 10 10 0 sell 1 10 0
Day 3 10 0 1 -9 buy 10 10 900
Day 4 0 1000 100 99 sell 10 1000 9900
Day 5 5 0 200 100 buy 5 1000 -50
So if you add up the yields you get 900+9900-50=10750%, but if you look at the yield on C1 it is 500% vs C2 at 1000%. Obviously I'm not doing something right.
I have a few questions, but first how are you computing gain. 1/1100= 100% not 0%, but 10/1 100 = 1000%. Is gain the same as yield? – user6972 – 2013-12-25T06:26:14.340
@user6972 Sorry, was a little inebriated, and it was late when I wrote it. Please note edit and let me know if you have any more questions. – None – 2013-12-25T06:55:31.150
Thanks that is very helpful and thanks for redoing your numbers. Now I see what I was doing wrong. I would like to find a way to express the gains made by shorting if the price drops. Is this what you mean by measuring the open position (your last formula)? – user6972 – 2013-12-25T17:28:11.033
@user6972 Yes, and if that last formula is still a little elusive, add an open short including the initial trade and the present price to your question, and I will use that data with the general formula to give you an explicit example. For any full roundtrip, where you sell
C1to buyC2then sellC2to buyC1, the above examples should be sufficient. – None – 2013-12-26T05:33:33.610I think I understand. I just take the initial purchased share ratio of C1/C2 * (current rate C2/C1) to see how the short is doing. Thanks for walking me through the basics. It's odd that most references I found on trading just say "your trading account will compute this automatically" and skip on along. – user6972 – 2013-12-26T18:58:54.107
@user6972 No problem at all! Glad I could help! – None – 2013-12-26T19:47:52.353