Yes, following technology progression, once equipment is available that can do 1Thash/sec and above then it becomes feasible to start finding collisions with a reasonable success rate. I'd estimate in circa 2-3 years this will be viable, as to whether anybody attempting it lucks out to get an address which has a decent quantity of BTC associated with it is another thing, and the question as to whether it'd even be profitable is further still.
I'm quite sure that the odds are much less than the basic math indicates.. if you find a match which is circa 20 chars long, the odds are rather high that the full address will match due to the process involved in generating the key pair.
Skip forward a decade, and this will be far more of a realistic worry, or at the point Thash becomes normal, and Phash is on the cards.. just as GPUs are now dormant and looking for a use, so will mining equipment that hasn't even been invented yet be in a few years.
24To give you an idea of the numbers involved: There are 1,921,075 different addresses in the block chain. That's less than 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000001 % of all the addresses that can be generated. – Artefact2 – 2011-08-30T21:42:27.110
2@Pacerier Why would every user need 10k different addresses per day? – Murch – 2014-03-28T01:37:33.893
6@Murch, 10k may be a severe underestimation. In any case, now is not the best time to answer that question, for the same reason 4 decades ago wasn't the best time to answer "Why will we run out of IP addresses?" – Pacerier – 2014-03-29T01:03:53.837
1
@Pacerier: That is an interesting statement, but I am more interested in why you expect that to happen than what the exact figure might be in the end. ;) I've opened a new question for it here: Why would we ever need 10k new addresses in average per day?
– Murch – 2014-03-29T19:32:56.900James D'Angelo has created a video to visualize the magnitude of Bitcoin's private key space: Bitcoin 101 - Quindecillions & The Amazing Math of Bitcoin's Private Keys
– Murch – 2015-03-08T17:56:38.7572@Artefact2 Yes, there is currently 2m different addresses. If we want BitCoin to scale to 7b, 8b, 9b, or 10b people, each generating 10k different addresses a day, that's 100 trillion addresses created daily. – Pacerier – 2012-06-18T03:44:14.470