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Already it's possible for MtGox etc. to detect spends of coins that have certain well-known thefts in their history. If regulators forced audits on exchanges and key popular merchants, as well as keeping track of coins they deemed to have been involved in illegal activities, they could make these exchanges and merchants pay a small tax on these 'tainted' transactions and pass this cost on to the consumer. As the regulators 'tainted' coin list would be public, it would become in more and more peoples interest to use wallet software which subscribes to the 'taint' list in order to reject coins they know will incur a penalty upon spending. The more the regulator raises the tax at the exchanges and audited merchants, the more people must join.
Audited exchanges and merchants would have to submit batches of all bitcoin addresses involved in their transactions to the regulator. Agents could perform random transactions with exchanges and merchants to make sure 100% of transaction IDs are reported.
Is this scenario realistic, and wouldn't this make Bitcoin ultimately a very controlled environment indeed?
('tainted' coins would still have value on black markets, creating a split system where bitcoins are no longer completely fungible)
1I suppose the corollary question is should the bitcoin network even try to resist it? Software will simply adapt and tell you where you can and can't spend your coins depending on what blacklist they're on and what discount/penalty to apply based on how dirty the coins are. The regulators wouldn't be the only ones who could define blacklists - there could be public interest tags designed to boycott certain things. – Julian Noble – 2011-12-02T05:20:18.197
What makes you think the regulators do not already have a controlled environment with respect to the exchanges?
There are more than enough people reporting that their withdrawal was well within the daily and monthly limit yet found that to get funds released they had to submit a passport and other identification. – Stephen Gornick – 2011-12-02T06:25:36.187
Yes, I think the exchanges are already somewhat restricted/controlled - but not to the point where they're automatically reporting all bitcoin transaction ids. (although - maybe those would be available upon subpoena) – Julian Noble – 2011-12-02T06:33:45.793
Note that 'to reject coins' isn't really directly possible - but wallet software subscribing to the blacklists would presumably know to isolate those coins and either allow sending those specific coins back to abort the deal, or to quarantine them. The user might choose to accept them but ask for further payment as they place a lower value on tainted coins. – Julian Noble – 2011-12-02T07:38:39.083